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FED | Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Thursday, September 24, 2015:
Chair Janet L. Yellen In my remarks today, I will discuss inflation and its role in the Federal Reserve's conduct of monetary policy.
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FED | Mediacenter - videos and podcasts:
Listen and watch.
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FED | Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer's Speech February 1, 2016:
Recent Monetary Policy
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FED | Press Release Date: December 16, 2015:
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.
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FED | Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation:
Board of Governors of the FED voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances to 0.50 percent
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FED | Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer:
Financial Stability and Shadow Banks: What We Don't Know Could Hurt Us
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Bloomberg | Powell Approved by Senate to Succeed Yellen as Fed Chair. Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell was confirmed with broad bipartisan support in the Senate to take the helm of the U.S. central bank when Chair Janet Yellen’s term ends Feb. 3.
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Bruegel blogpost by Silvia Merler | Powell’s Federal Reserve With the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Fed’s chairman, President Trump break a tradition of bipartisan re-nomination
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WSJ | A Booming Economy Will Challenge the Fed
Normal growth will drive up the demand for bank loans and induce lending of excess reserves.
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USATODAY | Yellen says Fed needs to avoid 'boom-bust' cycle in economy The Fed will be faced with a delicate balancing act: It will need to move rates up at a pace that allows the labor market to improve and inflation to move toward the Fed's target.
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Bloomberg | These Classic Charts Are Confounding Economists.
A debate is raging on what the flattening of the yield curve and the Phillips curve mean for U.S. growth.
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Business insider | The Fed is sending mixed messages about interest rates — and Wall Street is trying to figure out what it all means
Federal Reserve officials are becoming increasingly conflicted about whether to keep raising interest rates.
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Bloomberg | The U.S. economy must deal with important long-term challenges of low productivity and growing inequality.
Yellen Sees No Serious Short-Term Obstacles for U.S. Economy
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Bloomberg | How the Treasury would handle principal and interest payments on government securities. The full details of that meeting were secret until Thursday
Fed Debt-Limit Contingency Plans Detailed in 2011 Transcripts
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Bloomberg | The role of the U.S. Senate in providing checks and balances for the administration of President-elect Donald Trump.
LSE's Klass: U.S. Senate Needs to Stand Up to Trump
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WND | Bernanke FED likely to use negative interest rates:
I think negative rates are something the Fed will and probably should consider if the situation arises
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PCH | Fischer said he can't say when the Fed will raise rates again:
Increased concerns about the global outlook led the central bank to leave a key interest rate unchanged
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Wharton | Deflationary forces have been kicking up turbulence in Europe, prodding eurozone leaders to finally embrace quantitative easing (QE):
Deflation: Why Europe’s Problem Is Everyone’s Problem
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OECD Observer | The OECD does not see deflation taking hold in the euro area, but the risk has risen:
Europe’s deflation risk
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FED San Francisco | A gradual return of short-term interest rates to normal is consistent with promoting maximum employment and stable inflation.:
Why So Slow? A Gradual Return for Interest Rates
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FED New York | To answer this question, it is useful to consider the concept of the “natural rate of interest,”:
Why Are Interest Rates So Low?
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FED Richmond (PDF) | Three options for overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy:
Overcoming the zero bount on interest rate policy
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Newsmax | Rest in peace zero interest-rate policy (RIP ZIRP):
(ZIRP) who played a key role during the Financial Crisis and Great Recession, died Wednesday afternoon December 16, 2015
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CNBC | After seven years of the most accommodative monetary policy:
FED RAISES RATES BY 25 BASIS POINTS, FIRST SINCE 2006
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CNN | It is a sign of how much the economy has healed since the Great Recession. :
Finally! Fed raises interest rates
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Bloomberg | FOMC set the new target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent:
Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era; Signals 4 Quarter-Point 2016 Increases
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Bloomberg | You can't knock the U.S. economy's progress:
Deutsche Bank's Sløk: This Chart Shows Fed Liftoff Is Not a Mistake
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Marketwatch | Heavy selling in markets not an impediment to rate hike:
Ben Bernanke says he never expected rates to be at zero for so long
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Bloomberg | FED financial stability concern. Federal Reserve policy makers risk making a mistake:
Summers, Roubini Warn of Premature Federal Reserve Rate Move
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Forbes | Indeed, we could call QE simply the Mother of All Open Market Operations:
The Federal Reserve Shouldn't Raise Interest Rates, It Should Reverse Quantitative Easing Instead
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Bloomberg | Citi's Economist Willem Buiter Says It Might Be Time to Abolish Cash:
Would this save the world economy?
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Alternative Bank give -0.125 % on customers money from 2016 – and a -0.75 per cent rate on deposits above 100,000 CHF:
Small Swiss bank become first to hit savers with negative interest rates.
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Barrons | While good for stocks and bonds, money for nothing is an indication of the economy’s dire straits.:
Fed Setting Long-Range Goal of 0% Real Interest Rates
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UK Businessinsider | Goodbye to ZIRP (zero interest rate policies) and hello to NIRP (negative interest rate policies).:
How a central bank could kill off cash and bring in negative interest rates on your savings
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Financial Post | A NIRP was the pet scheme favoured by John Maynard Keynes during the depression-ridden 1930s:
From ZIRP to NIRP The U.S. Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), copied from the Bank of Japan’s Keynesian playbook.
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The Week UK | Just as the US is laying the ground for a potential rise in December, the ECB is hinting at more stimulus:
Interest rates: Federal Reserve and European Central Bank diverge.
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Forbes | Fed Chair Janet Yellen has proven herself both patient and cautious:
Why The Fed May Wait Until 2017 To Raise Rates
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Bloomberg | Yellen At this point, I see the U.S. economy as performing well:
Yellen Signals Solid Economy Would Spur December Rate Hike
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Nasdaq | FED exptects the economy will continue to grow and return inflation to our 2% target:
Yellen Says Rate Increase Possible in December
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ThisIsMoney UK | Bank of England cuts UK growth and inflation forecasts:
Interest rates set to remain at rock-bottom right through 2016
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Bloomberg | What happens when banks need to ease again?:
HSBC Explains How Markets Will Behave in a World of 'Quantitative Exhaustion'
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Seeking Alpha | Market Interest Rate Policy means only low volatility can bring about rate hikes.:
The New Paradigm: Is It NIRP... Or MIRP?
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Wall Stree Journal | Headlines often don’t tell the full story. :
Don’t Inflate Worry About Deflation in Europe
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Barrons | Yellen & Co. defer rate liftoff as global turbulences offset low headline jobless rate.:
Federal Reserve Is Now Central Bank to the World
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Bloomberg | Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, response to the Twitter question of the day on:
Should Janet Yellen Be Central Banker to the World?
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Marketwatch | The Fed has been stuck in a near-zero-rate cut since it ended its (QE), a year ago:
Fed’s hands are tied on interest-rate hike
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CNBC | Fed officials may hope to keep the door open for a December rate hike, but the slower economy could make them sound more dovish:
Softening data set to stay Yellen's hand
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Bloomberg | Both headline and core inflation in the euro area are “clearly” undershooting the institution’s goal:
ECB's Nowotny Says Euro-Area Core Inflation `Clearly' Below Goal.
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CNBC | What if, instead, the Fed's current policies are actually contractionary?:
Surprising Fed paper drops a dovish bombshell
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Bloomberg | Don't mess with nature | Money for nothing | Money deserves rent:
Dissent at the Fed and trouble with the Phillips Curve.
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Bloomberg | Kocherlakota Says Fed Should Consider Negative Interest Rates:
The Federal Reserve should consider ways to make monetary policy more accommodative.
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CNBC | Uber bears see 'deeply negative' US interest rates:
Will U.S. Federal Reserve soon cut interest rates into "deeply" negative territory.
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CNBC | Could negative rates be next on the Fed's policy menu?:
A new idea the central bank seemingly suggested: a negative interest rate.
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Janet Yellen Delivers Philip Gamble Memorial Lecture on Thursday, September 24, 2015:
Yellen uses an expectations augmented Phillips curve to explain why inflation is below the target of 2 per cent.
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WSJ | Janet Yellen Says Fed Interest Rate Increase Still Likely This Year:
Fed chief says ‘gradual pace of tightening’ expected to follow first rate hike-
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CNBC | Yellen: Rate hike likely appropriate this year:
A rate hike "sometime later this year" would likely be appropriate, though the decision to abandon accommodative policy depends on economic data
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Bloomberg | Yellen: Inflation to Return to 2% Over the Next 2-3 Years:
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen comments on the state of the labor market and inflation during a speech in Amherst, Massachusetts
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Bloomberg | Yellen Says She Still Expects Rate Increase This Year:
FED is on track to raise interest rates this year, even as she acknowledged that economic “surprises” could lead them to change that plan.
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Cointegration techniques used to examine three recent hyperinflationary episodes in transition economies:
The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand (or Cagan Revisited): Some New Empirical Evidence from the 1990s
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Spiral of slowing growth, rising unemployment, falling prices:
From Hyperinflation to Deflation, No End to Zimbabwe's Decline
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Fisher provided a detailed description of the conditions the Fed is seeking before pulling the trigger on an interest rate hike:
Fischer: Fed Shouldn't Wait for 2% Inflation
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As part of the talk, Fischer dropped a few hints about interest rates, which have hovered near historic lows since the global financial crisis:
Stanley Fischer Speech: 3 Takeaways From Federal Reserve Vice Chairman’s Comments At Jackson Hole Symposium
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The Federal Reserve on Friday left the door open to a September interest rate hike:
Fed says rate hike next month hinges on market volatility
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Stronger growth will pull inflation higher in the U.S. and Europe, according to three top central bankers:
Fed, ECB and Bank of England officials all say they see inflation rising
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Interest rates are now negative. It means in effect they are being paid to borrow someone else's money.:
Why use negative interest rates?
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An unconventional monetary policy tool whereby nominal target interest rates are set with a negative value:
Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)
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The classic Deflationary Spiral, where falling prices, defaults, bankruptcies, and falling wages reinforce each other in a continuous cycle:
Irvin Fisher’s Deflationary Spiral
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Everything you want to know about UK inflation and deflation:
The debt deflation theory
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Politicians and central bankers are not providing the world with the inflation it needs; some economies face damaging deflation instead:
Top bankers say more optimistic on euro crisis
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The deflation scare is back, as Jon Hilsenrath and Brian Blackstone report on the front page of The Wall Street Journal:
5 Reasons to Worry About Deflation
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The Federal Reserve reported that as of June 30, 2009 total U.S. debt was $52.8 trillion:
Ponzi Finance Deflationary Debt Deleveraging Downward Spiral Continues
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The voting public of debtor states continue to put up with an arrangement that ensures years of mass unemployment:
ECB is delighted by the splendid prospect of deflation
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This column rehabilitates Irving Fisher’s debt-deflation theory to explain the current crisis:
Hire Irving Fisher!
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Business Cycles, Money and Economic Policy:
The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions: On Irving Fisher’s Use of Medical Metaphors
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Today’s crisis has given new relevance to the ideas of another great economist of the Depression era:
Out of Keynes's shadow
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How to prosper in a deflationary environment with negative interest rates. Norwegian text only:
Negative interest rates, deflation and the deflation spiral.
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My thesis approved without remarks by Nobel Prize Winner Trygve Haavelmo:
Price and inflation theories with an empirical analysis of the relation between the price level and the quantity of money in Norway.